Review shows mixed forecast for Sacramento economy
The economic forecast for the Sacramento region is better than that of 2009 but it is still precarious, and job losses are expected to continue at least through most of 2010 according to the Sacramento Business Review.
The bi-annual Review, published by Sanjay Varshney, dean of Sacramento State’s College of Business Administration and Jason Bell of the CFA Society of Sacramento, is an independent review and forecast that focuses specifically on the economy of Sacramento.
“Although economists have already declared the official end of the national recession, we believe that the Sacramento region will lag behind the rest of the country in emerging from the recession,” Varshney says.
The Review, now in its second year, has hit the mark in its previous economic forecasts including a prediction in early 2009 that Sacramento’s unemployment rate would approach 13 percent by the end of that year.
“The unemployment rate for the Sacramento region has steadily climbed to 12.4 percent (as of November 2009) with a loss of nearly 83,000 wage and salary jobs since June 2007 and a loss of 43,800 jobs over the last 12 months,” Varshney says.
The dean says Sacramento has likely already seen the worst of the job losses and believes the regional economy is starting to show early signs of recovering. The bad news, he says, is that the recovery, particularly as it relates to the employment picture, will likely be very gradual over the next two years.
The Review is available online at www.sacbusinessreview.com. A printed version is available at the College of Business Administration.