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Sacramento State review accurately predicts jobless rate

A rise in the Sacramento region’s employment numbers was accurately predicted by a new publication produced by Sacramento State’s College of Business Administration and the CFA Society of Sacramento.

In the inaugural issue of the Sacramento Business Review, the authors forecast an expectation of 10 percent local unemployment and sharp job losses in the first quarter of 2009 at a time when the unemployment rate was still 8.1 percent.

According to a report released Thursday, March 5 by the state's Employment Development Department, the Sacramento region’s unemployment rate reached a staggering 10.4 percent in January, up from 8.8 percent in December, and up from just 6.4 percent a year ago.

As predicted in the Review, the recent local job loss has been led by weakness in the retail, construction and financial sectors, partially offset by relative stability in the education, healthcare, and government sectors.

“With few signs of improvement visible in the near-term, we continue to expect a Sacramento recovery to begin in early 2010 at the earliest and could well be pushed out later,” says Sanjay Varshney, dean of Sacramento State’s College of Business Administration.

The Review is published twice a year, with the next forecast expected to be released during the summer. The current issue is available online at www.cba.csus.edu/ibrc/index.html.