| Sacramento Forecast Project | El Dorado County Economic Forecast | California State University, Sacramento |
| revised January, 2008 | ||
| Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page | ||
| Number of Persons Employed |
| The number of persons employed (as measured by the Household Survey) in El Dorado County increased at a 1.3% (1,200 persons) rate in 2007, slower than the 1.8% increase in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is for an even smaller increase of 0.8% (700 new persons). |
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| Unemployment |
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| The average annual Unemployment Rate for El Dorado County increased in 2007 to 5.1%, up from the 4.6% annual average rate in 2006. The forecast for the annual rate, based on actual data through December, an even higher 5.4% in 2008. |
| Fountain Predictor | |
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| 1/21/06: The Predictor has been negative since May, with a general pattern of increasing negativity. The December value of -1.5% exceeded the negative levels of the previous negative cycle (2002-2003) and was the result of the Labor Force going one way (+0.844%) and the Number of Persons Employed going the other (-0.662%). | |
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| The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area. | The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health. |
| Taxable Sales |
| Taxable Sales for all Outlets, in 2006, increased mch more than the 1.6% increase in in 2005, with an increase of 10.03% ($170.0 million). The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2006, is for a decrease of 0.7%, followed by an increase of 1.5% in 2008. |
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| Building Permits |
| Residential Building Permits (total units) in El Dorado County declined from the recent high of 2,031 residential permits in 2004, to 1,715 permits in 2005 (a 15.6% decline), and dropped another 41.5% to 1,004 permits in 2006. The decline has continued through 2007, which is expected using actual data through November to end with a slightly smaller 36.15% decline to 641 permits issued and be followed by an even smaller 0.2% decline to 522 permits in 2008. |
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| Data Tables | |
| The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for El Dorado County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request. | |
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| Resources |
El Dorado County has several useful and informative locations on the Internet. For information about the county and its environment, try:
Data Providers: |
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Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu College of Business Administration California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web] |