Sacramento Forecast Project	Sacramento County Economic Forecast	California State University, Sacramento
	revised January, 2008
Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page

Number of Persons Employed

The number of persons employed (as measured by the Household Survey) in Sacramento County increased at a 1.32% (8,590 persons) rate in 2007, slower than the 1.76% increase in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is for an even slower increase of 0.8% (5,310 new persons) to an annual average of 664,210 persons.

Unemployment

The annual average Unemployment Rate for Sacramento County increased from the 4.7% for 2006 to 5.4% in 2007. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is another increase to 5.7%.

Fountain Predictor
The Predictor remained negative for the entire 2007 period and the negative values displayed a general pattern of increase through out the year, ending with a -1.504% value for December. The -1.504% comes close to the largest negative value of this century (-1.557% in July, 2002). The Labor Force in Sacramento County is growing faster (up 0.9% over the previous December) than the number of persons employed (down 0.61% from the previous December) and it does not appear likely that situation will change for the better in the near future.
The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area.	The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health.

Taxable Sales

Taxable Sales, all Outlets, posted a 0.59% Decrease in 2006, down from the 5.2% increase in 2005. The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2006, is for a slightly better 0.17% increase ($40 million); followed by an even better 4.2% increase ($900. mil.) in 2008.

Building Permits

Residential Building Permits (total units) in Sacramento County declined from the high of 13,960 residential permits in 2003, to 6,218 permits in 2006 (a 55.5% decline). The decline continued in 2007, which is expected, using actual data through November, to end with a 34.4% decline from 2006, to 4,287 permits issued, followed by a much smaller decline of 13.1% to 3,724 permits in 2008.

Data Tables

The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Sacramento County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request.

Resources

For information about the county and its business environment, try The County of Sacramento Homepage Business Environmental Resource Center Department of Economic Development Cities The City of Citrus Heights The City of Elk Grove The City of Folsom The City of Galt The City of Sacramento Development Districts The Downtown Sacramento Partnership The Florin Road Partnership The Mather Commerce Center at Mather Field The McClellan Commerce Center Other Sites The Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce The Business Journal The Sacramento Bee Elk Grove Citizen The Galt Herald The State of California maintains: Sacramento County Profile from Employment Development Department. County Profiles from the Department of Finance. Data Providers: California Department of Finance California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division California State Board of Equalization

Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 URL: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/j/jensena/sfp/sa11/sac5/sac/sacramen.htm Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu College of Business Administration California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web]