Sacramento Forecast Project Sacramento County Economic Forecast California State University, Sacramento
 revised January, 2009 
Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page

Number of Persons Employed
The average number of persons employed (as measured by the Household Survey) in Sacramento County decreased 0.16% (1,040 persons) rate in 2008, a reversal from the 0.9% increase in 2007. The forecast for 2009, based on actual data through December, 2008, is for another decline of 0.24% (1,600 persons).
graph, Employment, 2000-2009
The annual average Unemployment Rate for Sacramento County increased from the 5.5% for 2007 to 7.2% in 2008. The forecast for 2009, based on actual data through Deember,2008, is another increase to 7.7%.
graph, Unemployment Rate, 1990-2009
Fountain Predictor
graph, Fountain Predictor - 1990-2008
The Predictor has remained negative for 25 months and the negative values have generally been getting more and more negative as the months have passed with the largest negatives coming in December (December = -3.023), exceeding the largest negative value of this century (-1.557% in July, 2002). The Labor Force in Sacramento County continues to grow while the number of persons employed is declining. It does not appear likely that situation will change for the better in the near future.
graph, Fountain Predictor - 1984-2008
The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area.The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health.
Taxable Sales
Taxable Sales, all Outlets, posted a 2.74% Decrease in 2007, down from the 0.6% decrease in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2007, is for a 1.5% decrease ($1.22 billion); followed by a better 2.5% decrease in 2009.
graph, Taxable Sales, all Outlets, 1990-2009
Building Permits
Residential Building Permits (total units) in Sacramento County declined from the high of 13,960 residential permits in 2003, to 6,218 permits in 2006 (a 55.5% decline). The decline continued in 2007 with a 35.9% decline, ending with 4,187 residential permits issued for the year and the 2008 result was similar with a -34.5% decline to 2,742 permits. The forecast for 2009, using actual data through December,2008, is a 47.7% decline.
graph, Building Permits, 1995-2008
Data Tables
The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Sacramento County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request.
table, Number of Persons Employed, 1995-2009
table, Unemployment Rate, 1995-2009
table, Taxable Sales, all Outlets, 1995-2009
table, Building Permits, 2000-2009
For information about the county and its business environment, try The State of California maintains:
Data Providers:
Back to Sacramento Forecast Project
Update: January, 2009
Next Revision: July, 2009

Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing
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California State University, Sacramento

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