| Sacramento Forecast Project | Yolo County Economic Forecast | California State University, Sacramento |
| revised January, 2008 | ||
| Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page | ||
| Number of Persons Employed |
| The number of persons employed (as measured by the Household Survey) in Yolo County increased at a 1.32% (1,200 persons) rate in 2007, slightly slower than the 1.6% (1,600 persons) increase in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is for a much slower increase of 0.3% (300 new persons). |
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| Unemployment |
| The Yolo County annual Unemployment Rate for 2007 was 5.8%, up from the 5.2% rate in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is a higher annual rate of 6.2%. |
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| Fountain Predictor | |
| The Predictor for Yolo County remained positive for 24 months before dropping to -0.23% in April, 2006. It returned to positive in May and stayed positive through November and then turned negative for 3 months before going back to positive for March and April. The negative returned in May with the largest negative since October, 2003 and has stayed negative through December. The December value of -1.79% is the largest negative value this century and is the result of the Labor Force growing by 1.24% while the number of persons employed declined -0.55%. | |
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| The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area. | The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health. |
| Taxable Sales |
| Taxable Sales from all Outlets in Yolo County increased $96.3 million (3.1%) in 2006, to a total of $3,189.9 million. The 3.1% increase was much lower than the 10.1% increase in 2005 and the 10.9% increase in 2004. The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2006, is for a slower 2.9% ($91.3 million) increase, followed by an even slower increase of 0.6% ($20.5 million) in 2008. |
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| Building Permits |
| Residential Building Permits in Yolo County have fallen considerably since the peak of 2,198 residential permits in 2004. There were 489 fewer permits issued in 2005, a decline of 22.2% from the previous year. 2006 had another decline of 450 permits, a 26.3% decline. The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through November, is for a slightly smaller decline of 24.6% (decline of another 310 permits), followed by a slower 14.0% decline in 2008. |
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| Data Tables | |
| The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Yolo County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request. | |
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| Resources |
Yolo County has several useful and informative locations on the Internet:
The State of California maintains:
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Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 URL: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/j/jensena/sfp/sa11/yol2/yol/yolo.htm Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu College of Business Administration California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web] |