TEENAGE BIRTHRATES IN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES: WHAT REALLY MATTERS?
Deborah Franklin
B.A., California State University, Sacramento, 1975
THESIS
Submitted in partial satisfaction of
the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY AND ADMINISTRATION
at
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO
SUMMER 1999
TEENAGE BIRTHRATES IN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES: WHAT REALLY MATTERS?
A Thesis
by
Deborah Franklin
Approved by:
Rob Wassmer
Second Reader
Nancy Shulock
I certify that this student has met the requirements for format contained in the University format manual, and that this thesis is suitable for shelving in the Library and credit is to be awarded for this thesis.
Robert Waste, Department Chair
Department of Public Policy and Administration
Abstract
of
TEENAGE BIRTHRATES IN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES: WHAT REALLY MATTERS?
by
Deborah Franklin
This thesis is an investigation of the determinants of teenage birthrates in California counties. Regression analysis techniques are used to test the hypothesis that specific cultural, economic, educational, social, and public input factors affect the teenage birthrates in California counties. The data used in this investigation is county level data, primarily from the 1990 Census.
This study found that a number of specific cultural, economic, educational, and social factors have a significant effect on a county's teenage birthrate. The factors found to have the largest positive effect are the percent of a county's population that is Hispanic and the percent of families with incomes below the poverty level. The factors found to have the largest negative effect are the percent of women in the workforce whose children are under 18 years old and the percent of individuals that speak Spanish in their home. These findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to lower teenage birthrates in California.
Committee Chair
Rob Wassmer
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I wish to express my gratitude to two groups of people: the faculty of the Graduate Program in Public Policy and Administration and my family.
I am grateful for the outstanding PPA faculty for their enthusiastic instruction, their accessibility, and their willingness to go the extra mile for me. I especially appreciate the efforts of my thesis advisors, Rob Wassmer and Nancy Shulock. I value the time, effort, and support they so generously gave to me. Nancy was my second reader and asked the big picture questions that challenged me to broaden my perspective.
Rob was my primary advisor, a fitting role for an individual who has played such an important part in my educational endeavors. As my primary thesis advisor, Rob kept me focused and on track, lent his expertise, and offered advice and reassurance. Rob has been a challenging and patient instructor. He has also been an extraordinary mentor who has honored me with opportunities to serve as a co-author of a funded research project and as his teaching assistant. I deeply appreciate all of Rob's efforts on my behalf.
The love and support of my family were essential to the completion of my thesis. While pursuing their own educational and occupational goals, they took on responsibilities that I had no time for and cheered my successes. My husband Doug never complained about "losing" his wife to academia. His steadfast belief in me meant more to me than I can express. My sons Andrew and Scott endured a distracted and grouchy mother with good humor. Their pride in me is only exceeded by my pride in them. My friend Michelle kept me sane by being a great listener and reminding me to — and making me — have fun.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgments v
List of Tables viii
1. Introduction and Overview 1
Introduction 1
Why Study Teenage Birthrates 3
Historical Perspective 7
Teenage Birthrates in California in 1990 13
What Californians Think 16
Policy Considerations 22
What Follows 23
2. Literature Review 27
Introduction 27
The Determinants of Teenage Childbearing 28
The Relationship between Teenage Birthrates
and High School Dropout Rates 37
The Cost and Consequences of Teenage Childbearing 43
3. Methodology and Models 50
Introduction 50
Multivariate Regression Analysis 51
The Regression Models 53
The Specific Explanatory Variables 59
4. Regression Corrections and Results 77
Introduction 77
Evaluating Regression Results 78
Regression Results: Uncorrected Models 81
Correcting for Endogeneity 85
Other Corrections to the Regression Models 89
Regression Results: Corrected Models 93
Interpreting the Regression Results 98
5. Conclusion 102
Introduction 102
Policy Implications of the Hypothesis Testing Results 103
Predications Based on Current Rates of Change 109
Public Opinion and Regression Results 113
Summing Up 116
Bibliography 122
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1: U.S. and California Teenage Birthrates, 1970 to 1995 5
Table 1.2: U.S. Teenage Birthrates, 1940 to 1990 10
Table 1.3: Teenage Birthrates in California Counties, 1990 15
Table 3.1: List of Variables with Sources 60
Table 3.2: Descriptive Statistics 70
Table 3.3: Correlation Matrix 71
Table 4.1: Regression Results for Teenage Birthrates and
High School Dropout Rates 83
Table 4.2: First Stage Regression Results 88
Table 4.3: Regression Results for Corrected Models 94
Table 4.4: Elasticities for Significant Explanatory Variables in the Teenage Birthrate Model 99
Table 5.1: Changes in the Teenage Birthrate Based on Current Rates of Change 109
Table 5.2: Worst Case and Best Case Changes in the Teenage Birthrate 112