PPA 207 – QUANTITATIVE METHODS
GRADUATE PROGRAM IN PUBLIC POLICY AND
ADMINISTRATION
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO
SPRING 2004
Professor: Rob Wassmer, Ph.D.
E-Mail: rwassme@csus.edu
Home Page: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/w/wassmerr
Class Location: Tuesday, 6 p.m. - 8:50 p.m., 3009 Mendocino Hall
Office: Room 3037, Tahoe Hall
Office Phone: (916) 278 - 6304
Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursday, 4:00 - 6:00 p.m.; and by appointment if necessary.
Required Texts:
Please purchase all texts before first meeting and bring appropriate text(s) on dates covered.
(1) An SPSS Companion to Political Analysis, Philip H. Pollock, CQ Press;
available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM ;
(1) Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, 4th Edition, A.H. Studenmund; Addison, Wesley, Longman;
available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM ;
(3) SPSS Base 12.0 (Graduate Pack): Applications Guide and CD-ROM, 2002;
must be purchased at CSUS Bookstore in their computer department.
Supplement:
Be sure to take a look at the companion web site for the Studenmund book at http://occawlonline.pearsoned.com/bookbind/pubbooks/studenmund_awl/ . It provides student study resources and even a chat room where you can have a discussion with other students regarding questions you may have.
Prerequisite:
The requirement for taking this course is the previous completion of Statistics 1 (in the CSU system) or an equivalent course. For a quick review of the material covered in this course see Chapter 16 in Studenmund.
Data Sets:
A few data sets that we will be used throughout the semester. Some of them are on the CD that is included with Pollock book. I will provide others on a CD data disk that I will give out on first night of class.
Internet:
I have structured this course such that you must have an internet account that allows access to the World Wide Web. If you do not have one at home or work, you can get one through CSUS. At my homepage I will post an outline of each meeting and a description of the homework that is due at the following meeting. These will be available by 4 p.m. on the night that class meets. There will also be other handouts and web links posted at this site.
Learning Objectives:
At the end of PPA 207 it is expected that a student attending all meetings will:
(1) Have a working knowledge of where to begin to gather data for policy analysis.
(2) Possess the ability to accumulate data and do basic descriptive analysis of it using a spreadsheet program and more advanced statistical program (SPSS).
(3) Understand the importance of causal modeling before undertaking a statistical analysis.
(4) Understand the appropriate use of bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques that help to identify causal relationships between variables.
(5) Have a working knowledge of regression analysis and the value it offers to answering many policy questions.
(6) Be able to put together a research paper that describes a policy problem and undertakes a data based technique to offer a solution.
The purpose of this course is to expose the graduate student of public policy to some of the empirical methods used in the analysis and formulation of government policies. These include descriptive statistics, types and sources of data, distributions of data, regression analysis and interpretation, and some of the basic issues/problems that can arise in regression analysis. My goal is not to turn you into an expert on statistical and regression theory; instead, I shall provide you with a working knowledge of the most basic applied techniques. Even if one expects to never apply these techniques directly in their anticipated career path, it is very likely that they will be required to interpret and comment on reports that contain policy analysis based on these techniques.
Method:
Pedagogy will be equally focused on in-class meetings and discussions, required assignments out of the Studemund and Pollock books, and assignments using SPSS and the provided data sets. Each week, students will be required to complete a well-developed question from that week's readings and written answers to questions related to the readings. We will go over assignments at the meeting that they are due. Each class meeting will begin with discussion and collection of the previous week’s assignments. Only the student who completed the assignment can turn it in (my method of attendance). After 90 minutes (7:30 p.m.) we will take a 15-minute break and then return (7:45 a.m.) for an additional 65 minutes of meeting.
In-class time will also be devoted to covering the use of the Excel, SPSS, and PowerPoint computer packages. It is most important that you use these packages at home to get hands-on experience with the methods discussed in this class. Computer assignments will be due nearly every class period. If possible, the optimal situation is to install the purchased software on a home, work, or friend’s Windows compatible personal computer.
Schedule:
This class will meet a total of 15 times throughout the semester. The midterm exam (90 minutes) will be held in the first part of class on Tuesday, March 16 (a 65 minute class meeting will follow). There will be no final exam, but we will use the assigned time (Tuesday, May 18) to turn in your paper and conduct a 10 minute PowerPoint classroom presentation of your research experience.
The readings out of Studenmund (STUD), Pollock (POL), and others are given below.
Some of these links can only be accessed through the use of a SacLink account.
Meeting 1 - January 27
STUD 1 - An Overview of Regression Analysis
POL 1 - Introduction to SPSS
(Web Link) - Learning Excel
Meeting 2 - February 3
STUD 2 - Ordinary Least Squares
POL 2 - Descriptive Statistics
Meeting 3 - February 10
STUD 3 - Learning to Use Regression Analysis
POL 3 - Making Comparisons
POL Appendix
(Provided in Class) - Sprawl Data Disk
Meeting 4 - February 17
STUD 4 - Classical Model
POL 4 - Transforming Variables in SPSS
Meeting 5 - February 24
STUD 5 - Hypothesis Testing
Meeting 6 - March 2
STUD 6 - Choosing the Independent Variables
POL 8 - Correlation and Regression
Meeting 7 - March 9
STUD 7 - Choosing a Functional Form
POL 5 - Making Controlled Comparisons
Meeting 8 - March 16
MIDTERM EXAM
POL 6 - Making Inferences About Sample Means
Meeting 9 - March 23
STUD 8 - Multicollinearity
POL 7 - Chi Square
Meeting 10 - March 30
STUD 9 - Serial Correlation
(Web Link) - Learning PowerPoint
Meeting 11 - April 13
STUD 10 - Heteroskedasticity
Meeting 12 - April 20
STUD 11 - Regression User's Handbook
POL 10 - Doing Your Own Analysis
(Provided in Class) - Ziliak, Stephen T. and Deirde N. McCkloskey (2004), "Size Matters: The Standard Error of Regressions in the American Economic Review"
Meeting 13 - April 27
STUD 12 - Time Series Models
(Provided in Class) - Smith and Grandberg-Raedemacker (2203), "Money Only Matters if You Want It To?"
Meeting 14 - May 4
STUD 13 - Dummy Dependent Variable Techniques
POL 9 - Dummy Variables and Interaction Effects
(Web Link) - Wassmer, Robert W. (2002), "Fiscalization of Land Use, Urban Growth Boundaries, and Non-Central Retail Sprawl in the Western United States," Urban Studies, 39 (8), pp. 1307-1327; available at http://search.epnet.com/direct.asp?an=6886217&db=afh (put this address in your web browser, do not click on).
Meeting 15 - May 11
STUD 14 - Simultaneous Equations
Final - May 18
PAPER DUE
10-MINUTE STUDENT POWERPOINT PRESENTATIONS
Paper:
In order to receive a grade in this course, each student is required to complete an (15-20 double-spaced pages) empirical paper on the topic of their choosing and present the paper using PowerPoint in last meeting. You will need to gather data for this paper on your own. Details on the paper will be given in class. The paper should follow the format prescribed in the handout that I provide. The student papers, listed on the web, are excellent examples to look at.
Grades:
You will be required each week to complete a one to two-page, double-spaced, typed answer to questions that I will ask that relate to reading assignments. A total of 12 homework assignments will be given and collected. This is not required for the first, midterm, and last meetings. The answers to these questions will be due on the meeting that they are scheduled (no exceptions) to be covered and discussed in class. Only the top 10 homework grades will be used to calculate your average.
The written answers to my questions and homework will be looked over and assigned grades ranging from A+ (4.3) to F (0.0 - for not completing on time). A separate grade for each will be given and a total average derived.
The midterm test grade accounts for 25 percent of your final course grade. The paper you are required to complete accounts for 35 percent of your final grade. The average of all homework assignments account for 25 percent of your final grade. The remaining 15 percent of your grade is based on classroom participation and your PowerPoint presentation. You must take the midterm exam and complete the paper to pass the class.
Scoring for Midterm:
| Percent Correct | Letter Grade | Number Grade |
| 100-94 | A+ | 4.3 |
| 93-89 | A | 4.0 |
| 88-84 | A- | 3.7 |
| 83-79 | B+ | 3.3 |
| 78-74 | B | 3.0 |
| 73-69 | B- | 2.7 |
| 68-64 | C+ | 2.3 |
| 63-59 | C | 2.0 |
| 58-54 | C- | 1.7 |
| 53-40 | D | 1.0 |
| <40 | F | 0.0 |
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