PPA 207 – QUANTITATIVE METHODS
GRADUATE PROGRAM IN PUBLIC POLICY AND
ADMINISTRATION
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO
SPRING 2005
Professor: Rob Wassmer, Ph.D.
E-Mail: rwassme@csus.edu
Home Page: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/w/wassmerr
Class Location: Saturday, 9 a.m. – 2:30 p.m., 220 Amador Hall (January 29; February 5, 12, 19, 26; March 12, 19; and April 2 with a scheduled 15 minute meeting for each student in my office)
Office: Room 3037, Tahoe Hall
Office Phone: (916) 278 - 6304
Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursday, 4:00 - 6:00 p.m.; and by appointment if necessary
Required Texts:
Please purchase all texts and review each before first meeting. Bring appropriate text(s) on dates covered.
(1) An SPSS Companion to Political Analysis, Philip H. Pollock, CQ Press (labeled as POL); available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM ;
(2) Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, 4th Edition, A.H. Studenmund; Addison, Wesley, Longman (labeled as STUD); available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM ;
(3) SPSS Base 12.0 or1 13.0 (Graduate Pack): Applications Guide and CD-ROM; must be purchased at CSUS Bookstore in their computer department.
Supplement:
Be sure to take a look at the companion web site for the Studenmund book at http://occawlonline.pearsoned.com/bookbind/pubbooks/studenmund_awl/ . It provides student study resources and even a chat room where you can have a discussion with other students regarding questions you may have about text material.
Prerequisite:
The requirement for taking this course is the previous completion of Stat 1 (labeled as such in the CSU system or CA Community Colleges) or an equivalent course. For a quick review of the material covered in a typical Stat 1 course see Chapter 16 in Studenmund.
Data Sources:
We will use data
sets throughout the semester for class examples and you will need one for your
term paper. Some of them are on the CD that is included with Pollock
book. Some others are listed below; more
will be forthcoming during the semester.
|
Data Type |
Web Link/Source |
|
California
Academic Performance Index Scores for Public K-12 Schools |
|
|
United States’
Census Data |
|
|
Socio-Economic
Data from U.S. Urbanized Areas |
See Wassmer for
CD |
|
California
Field Polls |
|
|
California
County Data |
|
|
Ten Best Places
to Find Economic Data |
WebCT:
This course is structured such that you must have an account that allows access to the World Wide Web and WebCT. If you do not have an account at home or work, you can get one through CSUS. On WebCT I will post an outline of material covered in each meeting and a description of the homework that is due at the following meeting. These will be available by 4 p.m. on the Friday night before the class meets. Discussion questions and answers should be submitted through WebCT. Your grades will be accessible through WebCT.
Learning Objectives:
At the end of PPA 207 it is expected that a student attending all meetings will:
(1) Have a working knowledge of where to begin to gather data for policy analysis.
(2) Possess the ability to accumulate data and do basic descriptive analysis of it using a spreadsheet program and more advanced statistical program (SPSS).
(3) Understand the importance of causal modeling before undertaking a statistical analysis.
(4) Understand the appropriate use of bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques that help to identify causal relationships between variables.
(5) Have a working knowledge of regression analysis and the value it offers to answer many policy questions.
(6) Be able to put together a research paper that describes a policy problem and undertakes a regression based research study to offer a solution.
The purpose of this course is to expose the graduate student of public policy to some of the empirical methods used in the analysis and formulation of government policies. These include descriptive statistics, types and sources of data, distributions of data, regression analysis and interpretation, and some of the basic issues/problems that can arise in regression analysis. My goal is not to turn you into an expert on statistical and regression theory; instead, I will provide you with a working knowledge of the most basic applied techniques. Even if one expects to never apply these techniques directly in their anticipated career path, it is very likely that they will be required to interpret and comment on reports that contain policy analysis based on these techniques.
Method:
Pedagogy will be
equally focused on in-class meetings and discussions, required assignments out
of the Studemund and Pollock books, and assignments
using SPSS and the provided data sets. Each week,
students will be required to complete a well-developed question from that
week's readings and written answers to HW questions related to the readings. We
will go over assignments at the meeting that they are due.
The student
question on what they did not understand from that week’s reading should be
submitted to the discussion board on WebCT. By the following Friday, each student is
required to choose another student’s question (on a first-come-first-serve
basis) and provide a written answer to the discussion board. (Note that this is not required for January
29 meeting.) Do your best at answering
the question by referring to the discussion we had in class on it and where it
is covered in texts. If you can still
not answer, please call me or stop by during my office hours and I will help
you with it.
All submissions
of this type should be labeled in the subject portion of posting as Friday date
followed by last name. As an example, if
I submitted a question on first date that it is due it would be labeled
“Feb4Wassmer”. When another student, say John Smith, chose to respond to my question by Feb 11 at
5 p.m. the next week, his threaded response would be labeled
“Feb4WassmerSmith”. Your grade each week
on this assignment will be based upon both the quality of your question and the
quality of your response to another’s question.
Each class meeting will begin with discussion and collection of the previous week’s HW assignment. Only the student who completed the assignment can turn it in (my method of attendance). After 90 minutes (10:30 a.m.) we will take a 10-minute break and then return (at 10:40 a.m.) for an additional 90 minutes of meeting (until 12:10 p.m.). At that time we will take a lunch break until 1:00 p.m. and then conclude with a final 90 minutes of class until 2:30 p.m.
In-class time will be devoted to covering the use of the Excel and SPSS computer packages at computers you will have access to. It is also most important that you use these packages at home to get hands-on experience with the methods discussed in this class. Computer assignments will be due nearly every class period. If possible, the optimal situation is to install the purchased software on a home, work, or friend’s Windows compatible personal computer that you have access to.
Schedule:
This class meets
a total of 8 times throughout the semester. One consecutive Saturday will be
skipped (March 5) and made up through each student visiting me in my office on
April 2 for a private 15 minute
discussion of their paper’s plan and progress.
The midterm exam (90 minutes) will be held in the first part of class on February 19 (a full class meeting will follow).
The readings out of Studenmund (STUD), Pollock (POL), and others are given below.
Some
of these links may only be accessed through the use of a SacLink
account.
Meeting 1 - January 29
STUD 1 - An
Overview of Regression Analysis
STUD 2 - Ordinary
Least Squares
STUD 3 - Learning
to Use Regression Analysis
POL Getting Started
POL 1 -
Introduction to SPSS
POL 2 - Descriptive Statistics
(Web Link) - Learning Excel
(Web Link) – “Causes of Urban Sprawl (Decentralization) in the United States”
Meeting 2 -
February 5
STUD 4 -
Classical Model
STUD 5 - Hypothesis Testing
POL 3 - Making Comparisons
POL 4 -
Transforming Variables in SPSS
POL Appendix
Meeting 3 - February 12
STUD 6 - Choosing
the Independent Variables
STUD 7 - Choosing
a Functional Form
POL 5 - Making Controlled Comparisons
POL 8 - Correlation and Regression
Meeting 4 – February 19
MIDTERM EXAM (90
minutes at start of class)
STUD 8 - Multicollinearity
POL 6 - Making Inferences About Sample Means
POL 7 - Chi Square
Meeting 5 – February 26
STUD 9 - Serial Correlation
STUD 10 - Heteroskedasticity
Meeting 6 – March 12
STUD 11 -
Regression User's Handbook
STUD 12 - Time Series Models
POL 10 - Doing
Your Own Analysis
Spring 2004 Course Paper: Tina Robilliard, The
Determinants of "At Risk" Behavior among Youth in California
Meeting 7 – March 19
STUD 13 - Dummy
Dependent Variable Techniques
STUD 14 - Simultaneous Equations
POL 9 - Dummy Variables and Interaction Effects
Spring 2003 Course Paper: Michelle DiRe,
Latinos and Community Activism in California
Meeting 8 – April 2
15 minute student appointments to discuss term papers
Final – April 29
LAST DAY TO TURN IN PAPER
Paper:
In order to receive a grade in this course, each student is required to complete a regression-based paper (15-20 double-spaced pages) on the topic of their choosing. You will need to gather data for this paper on your own. Details on the paper will be given in class. The paper should follow the format prescribed in the handout that I provide. The student papers listed above are excellent examples to look at.
Grades:
You are required to participate in WebCT discussions and complete the HWs assigned. A total of 6 homework assignments and discussions are required. Your written answers to homework and discussion participation will be looked over and assigned grades ranging from A+ (4.3) to F (0.0 - for not completing on time). A separate grade for each will be given and a total average derived.
The midterm test grade accounts for 25 percent of your final course grade. The paper you are required to complete accounts for 35 percent of your final grade. The average of all homework assignments account for 20 percent of your final grade; while your discussion participation is 15 percent. The remaining 5 percent of your grade is based on participation in classroom discussion. You must take the midterm exam and complete the paper to pass the class.
Scoring for Midterm:
|
Percent Correct |
Letter Grade |
Number Grade |
|
100-94 |
A+ |
4.3 |
|
93-89 |
A |
4.0 |
|
88-84 |
A- |
3.7 |
|
83-79 |
B+ |
3.3 |
|
78-74 |
B |
3.0 |
|
73-69 |
B- |
2.7 |
|
68-64 |
C+ |
2.3 |
|
63-59 |
C |
2.0 |
|
58-54 |
C- |
1.7 |
|
53-40 |
D |
1.0 |
|
<40 |
F |
0.0 |