PPA 207 – QUANTITATIVE METHODS

GRADUATE PROGRAM IN PUBLIC POLICY AND ADMINISTRATION
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO

SPRING 2005

Professor: Rob Wassmer, Ph.D.

E-Mail: rwassme@csus.edu

Home Page: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/w/wassmerr

Class Location: Saturday, 9 a.m. – 2:30 p.m., 220 Amador Hall (January 29; February 5, 12, 19, 26; March 12, 19; and April 2 with a scheduled 15 minute meeting for each student in my office)

Office: Room 3037, Tahoe Hall

Office Phone: (916) 278 - 6304

Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursday, 4:00 - 6:00 p.m.; and by appointment if necessary

Required Texts:

Please purchase all texts and review each before first meeting.  Bring appropriate text(s) on dates covered.

(1) An SPSS Companion to Political Analysis, Philip H. Pollock, CQ Press (labeled as POL); available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM  ;

(2) Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, 4th Edition, A.H. Studenmund; Addison, Wesley, Longman (labeled as STUD); available for purchase at CSUS Bookstore or click to buy on web at Amazon. COM  ;

(3) SPSS Base 12.0 or1 13.0 (Graduate Pack): Applications Guide and CD-ROM; must be purchased at CSUS Bookstore in their computer department.

Supplement:

Be sure to take a look at the companion web site for the Studenmund book at http://occawlonline.pearsoned.com/bookbind/pubbooks/studenmund_awl/ .  It provides student study resources and even a chat room where you can have a discussion with other students regarding questions you may have about text material.


Prerequisite:

The requirement for taking this course is the previous completion of Stat 1 (labeled as such in the CSU system or CA Community Colleges) or an equivalent course.  For a quick review of the material covered in a typical Stat 1 course see Chapter 16 in Studenmund.

Data Sources:

We will use data sets throughout the semester for class examples and you will need one for your term paper.  Some of them are on the CD that is included with Pollock book.  Some others are listed below; more will be forthcoming during the semester.

Data Type

Web Link/Source

California Academic Performance Index Scores for Public K-12 Schools

http://api.cde.ca.gov/datafiles.asp

United States’ Census Data

http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html

Socio-Economic Data from U.S. Urbanized Areas

See Wassmer for CD

California Field Polls

http://gort.ucsd.edu/calpol

California County Data

http://www.cicg.org/data

Ten Best Places to Find Economic Data

http://www.econdata.net

WebCT:

This course is structured such that you must have an account that allows access to the World Wide Web and WebCT. If you do not have an account at home or work, you can get one through CSUS. On WebCT I will post an outline of material covered in each meeting and a description of the homework that is due at the following meeting. These will be available by 4 p.m. on the Friday night before the class meets. Discussion questions and answers should be submitted through WebCT. Your grades will be accessible through WebCT.

Learning Objectives:

At the end of PPA 207 it is expected that a student attending all meetings will:

(1) Have a working knowledge of where to begin to gather data for policy analysis.

(2) Possess the ability to accumulate data and do basic descriptive analysis of it using a spreadsheet program and more advanced statistical program (SPSS).

(3) Understand the importance of causal modeling before undertaking a statistical analysis.

(4) Understand the appropriate use of bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques that help to identify causal relationships between variables.

(5) Have a working knowledge of regression analysis and the value it offers to answer many policy questions.

(6) Be able to put together a research paper that describes a policy problem and undertakes a regression based research study to offer a solution.

The purpose of this course is to expose the graduate student of public policy to some of the empirical methods used in the analysis and formulation of government policies. These include descriptive statistics, types and sources of data, distributions of data, regression analysis and interpretation, and some of the basic issues/problems that can arise in regression analysis. My goal is not to turn you into an expert on statistical and regression theory; instead, I will provide you with a working knowledge of the most basic applied techniques. Even if one expects to never apply these techniques directly in their anticipated career path, it is very likely that they will be required to interpret and comment on reports that contain policy analysis based on these techniques.

Method:

Pedagogy will be equally focused on in-class meetings and discussions, required assignments out of the Studemund and Pollock books, and assignments using SPSS and the provided data sets. Each week, students will be required to complete a well-developed question from that week's readings and written answers to HW questions related to the readings. We will go over assignments at the meeting that they are due. 

The student question on what they did not understand from that week’s reading should be submitted to the discussion board on WebCT.  By the following Friday, each student is required to choose another student’s question (on a first-come-first-serve basis) and provide a written answer to the discussion board.  (Note that this is not required for January 29 meeting.)  Do your best at answering the question by referring to the discussion we had in class on it and where it is covered in texts.  If you can still not answer, please call me or stop by during my office hours and I will help you with it.

All submissions of this type should be labeled in the subject portion of posting as Friday date followed by last name.  As an example, if I submitted a question on first date that it is due it would be labeled “Feb4Wassmer”.  When another student, say John Smith, chose to respond to my question by Feb 11 at 5 p.m. the next week, his threaded response would be labeled “Feb4WassmerSmith”.  Your grade each week on this assignment will be based upon both the quality of your question and the quality of your response to another’s question.

Each class meeting will begin with discussion and collection of the previous week’s HW assignment. Only the student who completed the assignment can turn it in (my method of attendance). After 90 minutes (10:30 a.m.) we will take a 10-minute break and then return (at 10:40 a.m.) for an additional 90 minutes of meeting (until 12:10 p.m.).  At that time we will take a lunch break until 1:00 p.m. and then conclude with a final 90 minutes of class until 2:30 p.m.

In-class time will be devoted to covering the use of the Excel and SPSS computer packages at computers you will have access to. It is also most important that you use these packages at home to get hands-on experience with the methods discussed in this class. Computer assignments will be due nearly every class period. If possible, the optimal situation is to install the purchased software on a home, work, or friend’s Windows compatible personal computer that you have access to.


Schedule:

This class meets a total of 8 times throughout the semester. One consecutive Saturday will be skipped (March 5) and made up through each student visiting me in my office on April 2 for a private 15 minute  discussion of their paper’s plan and progress.

The midterm exam (90 minutes) will be held in the first part of class on February 19 (a full class meeting will follow).

The readings out of Studenmund (STUD), Pollock (POL), and others are given below.

Some of these links may only be accessed through the use of a SacLink account.

Meeting 1 - January 29

STUD 1 - An Overview of Regression Analysis

STUD 2 - Ordinary Least Squares

STUD 3 - Learning to Use Regression Analysis

POL Getting Started

POL 1 - Introduction to SPSS

POL 2 - Descriptive Statistics

(Web Link) - Learning Excel

(Web Link) – “Causes of Urban Sprawl (Decentralization) in the United States”

Meeting 2 - February 5

STUD 4 - Classical Model

STUD 5 - Hypothesis Testing

POL 3 - Making Comparisons

POL 4 - Transforming Variables in SPSS

POL Appendix

Meeting 3 - February 12

STUD 6 - Choosing the Independent Variables

STUD 7 - Choosing a Functional Form

POL 5 - Making Controlled Comparisons

POL 8 - Correlation and Regression

Meeting 4 – February 19

MIDTERM EXAM (90 minutes at start of class)

STUD 8 - Multicollinearity

POL 6 - Making Inferences About Sample Means

POL 7 - Chi Square

Meeting 5 – February 26

STUD 9 - Serial Correlation

STUD 10 - Heteroskedasticity

Meeting 6 – March 12

STUD 11 - Regression User's Handbook

STUD 12 - Time Series Models

POL 10 - Doing Your Own Analysis

Spring 2004 Course Paper: Jackie Chin, Effects of Ethnicity on the Percentage of Asian Americans Enrolled in College

Spring 2004 Course Paper: Tina Robilliard, The Determinants of "At Risk" Behavior among Youth in California  

Meeting 7 – March 19

STUD 13 - Dummy Dependent Variable Techniques

STUD 14 - Simultaneous Equations

POL 9 - Dummy Variables and Interaction Effects

Spring 2003 Course Paper: Michelle DiRe, Latinos and Community Activism in California

 

Spring 2000 Course Paper: Catherine J. Burnette, Factors Affecting Placement Failure: An Analysis of Sacramento County Juvenile Offenders

 

Meeting 8 – April 2

15 minute student appointments to discuss term papers

Final – April 29

LAST DAY TO TURN IN PAPER


Paper:

In order to receive a grade in this course, each student is required to complete a regression-based paper (15-20 double-spaced pages) on the topic of their choosing. You will need to gather data for this paper on your own.  Details on the paper will be given in class. The paper should follow the format prescribed in the handout that I provide. The student papers listed above are excellent examples to look at.

Grades:

You are required to participate in WebCT discussions and complete the HWs assigned.  A total of 6 homework assignments and discussions are required.  Your written answers to homework and discussion participation will be looked over and assigned grades ranging from A+ (4.3) to F (0.0 - for not completing on time). A separate grade for each will be given and a total average derived.

The midterm test grade accounts for 25 percent of your final course grade. The paper you are required to complete accounts for 35 percent of your final grade. The average of all homework assignments account for 20 percent of your final grade; while your discussion participation is 15 percent. The remaining 5 percent of your grade is based on participation in classroom discussion. You must take the midterm exam and complete the paper to pass the class.


Scoring for Midterm:

Percent Correct

Letter Grade

Number Grade

100-94

A+

4.3

93-89

A

4.0

88-84

A-

3.7

83-79

B+

3.3

78-74

B

3.0

73-69

B-

2.7

68-64

C+

2.3

63-59

C

2.0

58-54

C-

1.7

53-40

D

1.0

<40

F

0.0

 

BACK