| January
23, 2003 Forecast:
State budget woes hamper local economy
Full
Report
December marked the seventh straight month of negative
job growth for the Capital Region, with state budget troubles and possible tax
increases dimming prospects for a quick turnaround, according to the quarterly
CSUS Forecast released today by the California Institute for County Government
at California State University, Sacramento.
The report also said the local
economy is hurting from uncertainty about the national economy and the possibility
of military action in the Middle East.
Forecasters expect negative job
growth to continue through the summer, with positive job growth returning late
in the year.
The Capital Region's employment growth was -0.45 percent in
December. By comparison, the state recorded -0.14 job growth and the nation -0.09.
Although government employers in the region continued to show positive
job growth, the rate slowed to 1.1 percent. Forecasters expect the government
sector rate to be negative soon because of state budget cuts.
The outlook
in the manufacturing and construction sectors is a bit more positive. Manufacturing
is still negative but continuing to improve. And construction, which had negative
job growth in mid-2002, showed positive job growth again.
The quarterly
CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county
Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California
Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development
Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special
assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn
Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.
More information is available by contacting Matthew Newman, director of the
California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796 or by visiting the
institute's website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at
(916) 278-6156.
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