March 26, 2004

Forecast: Sacramento Region job outlook improving

Full Report (pdf)

Despite continued losses in government employment, the Sacramento Region should see a generally improving job market over the next year, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for County Government at California State University, Sacramento.

The forecast predicts job growth in the region’s construction and finance sectors will make up for losses in government and in manufacturing, a long-foundering sector that’s poised to rebound. Overall job growth, it says, will range between 1 and 2 percent.

The forecast uses data from numerous sources, including the state’s Employment Development Department, to make one-year predictions of Sacramento Region job growth.

The forecast has proven highly accurate since it was created two years ago. In fact, a recent review of the forecast’s predictions over the last two years show it has been more accurate than preliminary figures released throughout the year by EDD.

For instance, the forecast had predicted slight but positive job growth throughout last fall. The EDD initially reported the region was losing jobs in the fall, but the department’s newly revised figures show the region actually kept adding jobs and outperformed the state and nation.

The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.

More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796, or at the institute’s website at www.cicg.org. Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at (916) 278-6156.

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