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April
17, 2003
Forecast:
State budget troubles have region struggling
Full
study
In March, for the first time in two years, California’s economy
as a whole outshined the Sacramento region’s as state budget
woes continued to take a toll on local job growth, according to
the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for County
Government at California State University, Sacramento.
The report says the Sacramento area’s job growth was .88 percent,
down from 1.9 percent a year ago, while the state’s was 1.52
percent, significantly up from -0.58 percent a year ago. In fact,
the state’s job growth is also well ahead of the nation’s,
which was -0.19 percent in March.
The report says slow job growth nationally as well as reduced state
spending in the area are to blame for the region’s economic
troubles. It also says prospects for improvement in coming months
are dim because of expected layoffs of state workers and possible
state tax increases. It predicts there will not be a return to strong
job growth in the region anytime in the next 12 months.
Growth in each of the region’s three main sectors –
construction, manufacturing and government – was off slightly
from February to March. Manufacturing job growth remained negative.
The forecast accounts for revised figures from the Employment Development
Department which, contrary to previous reports of declines, show
modest job growth in the Sacramento region last year.
The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an
econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than
two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute
for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development
Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert
Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served
as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance
with model development and programming.
More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the
California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796, or
at the institute’s website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public
affairs at (916) 278-6156.
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