CSUS Forecast: Markets, national
economy taking toll on region's job growth
market turmoil and weak national employment figures have led to
negative job growth in the Capital Region for the first time in
nine years, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast released today
by the California Institute for County Government at California
State University, Sacramento.
employment growth in the region was -0.26 percent. The forecast
predicts slightly negative job growth will continue through early
next year before returning to positive levels.
In April, the forecast predicted the Capital Region would narrowly
avoid negative job growth as the nation pulled out of recession.
But national job growth has remained unexpectedly weak while stock
markets have tumbled.
so, the region's economy has fared relatively well. For comparison,
the Bay Area's job growth was -2.24 percent in June, while the state's
was -0.46 percent and the nation was -1.17 percent.
forecast says Capital Region job growth continues to be stabilized
by the government sector, though even this sector is not as strong
as earlier this year. The forecast warns predicted job growth in
2003 could be jeopardized if the national economy grows slower than
expected or if stock market losses continue.
quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric
model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen
variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County
Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative.
CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special
assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors.
Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development
information is available by contacting Matthew Newman, director
of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796,
by sending an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org
or by visiting the institute's website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public
affairs at (916) 278-6156.