July 25, 2002

Latest CSUS Forecast: Markets, national
economy taking toll on region's job growth

Full Report (pdf)

Financial market turmoil and weak national employment figures have led to negative job growth in the Capital Region for the first time in nine years, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast released today by the California Institute for County Government at California State University, Sacramento.

June employment growth in the region was -0.26 percent. The forecast predicts slightly negative job growth will continue through early next year before returning to positive levels.
In April, the forecast predicted the Capital Region would narrowly avoid negative job growth as the nation pulled out of recession. But national job growth has remained unexpectedly weak while stock markets have tumbled.

Even so, the region's economy has fared relatively well. For comparison, the Bay Area's job growth was -2.24 percent in June, while the state's was -0.46 percent and the nation was -1.17 percent.

The forecast says Capital Region job growth continues to be stabilized by the government sector, though even this sector is not as strong as earlier this year. The forecast warns predicted job growth in 2003 could be jeopardized if the national economy grows slower than expected or if stock market losses continue.

The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.

More information is available by contacting Matthew Newman, director of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796, by sending an e-mail to info@cicg.org or by visiting the institute's website at www.cicg.org. Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at (916) 278-6156.

Full Report (pdf)

#####