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July 25, 2003

Forecast: Region’s economy lags
as state struggles with budget

full report

A state budget deficit that has brought government job growth to a halt and reduced state spending locally will mean very slow job growth in the Sacramento Region over the next 12 months, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for County Government at California State University, Sacramento.

The forecast says the key for the region’s economy will be how well private sector job gains can make up for government job losses. That’s a shift for the region, where the government employs one in four workers and where government employment has traditionally helped stabilize the economy.

In June, the seasonally adjusted employment growth in the region was .08 percent, down from 2 percent a year ago. The forecast predicts a slight improvement by next June, though nowhere close to the strong job growth the region was enjoying two years ago.

Statewide, employment growth dipped to -0.63 percent in June, while nationwide job growth was -0.28.

The Sacramento Region’s manufacturing sector continues to lose jobs, as it has since 2001. The construction sector is still gaining jobs, though growth in that sector has slowed.

The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.

More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0797, or at the institute’s website at www.cicg.org. Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at (916) 278-6156.


full report

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California State University, Sacramento • Public Affairs
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