| July
25, 2003
Forecast:
Region’s economy lags
as state struggles with budget
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report
A state budget deficit that has brought government job growth to
a halt and reduced state spending locally will mean very slow job
growth in the Sacramento Region over the next 12 months, according
to the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for
County Government at California State University, Sacramento.
The forecast says the key for the region’s economy will be
how well private sector job gains can make up for government job
losses. That’s a shift for the region, where the government
employs one in four workers and where government employment has
traditionally helped stabilize the economy.
In June, the seasonally adjusted employment growth in the region
was .08 percent, down from 2 percent a year ago. The forecast predicts
a slight improvement by next June, though nowhere close to the strong
job growth the region was enjoying two years ago.
Statewide, employment growth dipped to -0.63 percent in June, while
nationwide job growth was -0.28.
The Sacramento Region’s manufacturing sector continues to
lose jobs, as it has since 2001. The construction sector is still
gaining jobs, though growth in that sector has slowed.
The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an
econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than
two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute
for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development
Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert
Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served
as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance
with model development and programming.
More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the
California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0797, or
at the institute’s website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public
affairs at (916) 278-6156.
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