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October 17, 2002

Quarterly CSUS Forecast:
No regional job growth until next summer

Full Study

The Capital Region's first slump in employment growth in nine years continued in September, with no turnaround likely until next summer, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast released today by the California Institute for County Government at California State University, Sacramento.

September employment growth in the region was -0.36 percent. Forecasters predict slightly negative job growth will continue through August.

By comparison, the Bay Area's job growth was -2.19 percent in September, and the state's was -0.39 percent.

Until this June, the Capital Region had avoided the job losses plaguing most of the nation. But forecasters say weakness in the national economy and financial markets, the state budget deficit and worsening consumer sentiment all caught up with the local job market.

Among key local sectors, the forecast says manufacturing appears poised for a recovery. Construction hiring grew slightly in September for the first time since April. State government hiring, which has slowed due to the state budget deficit but has not gone negative, continues to act as a stabilizing influence.

The forecast says risks to the predicted job growth for next summer include any decline in the national economy, continued turmoil in the financial markets and possible military action in Iraq.

The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.

More information is available by contacting Matthew Newman, director of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796 or by visiting the institute's website at www.cicg.org. Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at (916) 278-6156.

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California State University, Sacramento • Public Affairs
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