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October
17, 2002
Quarterly
CSUS Forecast:
No regional job growth until next summer
Full
Study
The
Capital Region's first slump in employment growth in nine years
continued in September, with no turnaround likely until next summer,
according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast released today by the California
Institute for County Government at California State University,
Sacramento.
September employment growth in the region was -0.36 percent. Forecasters
predict slightly negative job growth will continue through August.
By comparison, the Bay Area's job growth was -2.19 percent in September,
and the state's was -0.39 percent.
Until this June, the Capital Region had avoided the job losses plaguing
most of the nation. But forecasters say weakness in the national
economy and financial markets, the state budget deficit and worsening
consumer sentiment all caught up with the local job market.
Among key local sectors, the forecast says manufacturing appears
poised for a recovery. Construction hiring grew slightly in September
for the first time since April. State government hiring, which has
slowed due to the state budget deficit but has not gone negative,
continues to act as a stabilizing influence.
The forecast says risks to the predicted job growth for next summer
include any decline in the national economy, continued turmoil in
the financial markets and possible military action in Iraq.
The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an
econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than
two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute
for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development
Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert
Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served
as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance
with model development and programming.
More information is available by contacting Matthew Newman, director
of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796
or by visiting the institute's website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public
affairs at (916) 278-6156.
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