December 19, 2003

Forecast: Region’s cool job market may warm next summer

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The new year brings new hope for the Sacramento Region’s job market, with positive job growth returning by the summer, according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for County Government at California State University, Sacramento.

The forecast predicts the region’s job losses, which began this summer, will end due to hiring in the private sector. Construction in particular is showing strength, while losses in manufacturing are slowing.

Last year at this time, the Sacramento Region was still dodging the job losses plaguing the rest of the state and nation. Job growth in the region then was about 1 percent, while it was about 0 percent in the state and nation. Now the region is experiencing job losses of about 0.7 percent, while the state and nation are doing slightly better.

The forecast predicts the government sector, which has the largest number of employees in the region, will see even more job losses due to continuing state budget problems. More than half of the jobs lost recently were in government. Researchers with the forecast say government employment no longer acts as a cushion for the region, as it traditionally has.

The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with model development and programming.

More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the California Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796, or at the institute’s website at www.cicg.org. Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at (916) 278-6156.

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