Voting Behavior and Public Opinion

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What do the opinion polls tell us?   What's the smartest way to read them? What are voting patterns like by demographic group?  How does ideology match up with partisanship and voting?  That and more, here.

Election Polls:

  •  has daily updates.
  • 538 Political scientist Nate Silver uses social science models to predict election outcomes and more.  One of the most trusted voices in political calculus. Check out the tipping point map, that calculates the odds that a given state will be decisive in the electoral college.
  • Pollster Offers expert analysis of polls, a predictive electoral map, and combines data from many polls. Check out the "cartogram" on the "election dashboard", that gives visual weights to the size of the state's electoral college delegation.
  • Election Projection does projections for the presidency, U.S. Congress, and Governors.
  • Intrade uses a unique methodology to predict election outcomes -- people place bets on the outcome.  This is a market-based predictor.
  • Votamatic A political scientist uses statistical political science models to forecast the results of the 2012 Presidential Election.
  • RealClearPolitics has an electoral college predictor map with breakdowns by state.
  • The Washington Post has an electoral map of the 2012 election that you can also break down by race, unemployment and other factors
  • PBS Newshour has an electoral map that shows the difference between campaign contributions for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 

Ongoing Polling:

  • The Pew Research Center has some of the best reports based on national polls available. Topics range from election related, to content on the mass media, to more sociological studies.
  • Our friends at Latino Decisions do polling of Latinos in the US.  Check out their interactive graphics on Latino influence in 2012 and 2016 GOP Threshold Calculator 
  • Pollingreport Combines many polls, sorts by topic, and provides the actual questions and responses.  Outdated web design, but good information.
  • The American National Election Studies is probably the most reputable regular national academic polling organization.  Though it is generally used by academics doing research, you can look at changes over time on different questions via tables and graphs in "the Guide".
  • Gallup is a storied national polling organization.  They have reports on current and past polls on a large variety of issue areas.
  • In California, the Field Research Corporation and PPIC are the most reputable polling organizations.  Both put out regular reports on issues, the electorate, and public opinion about candidates, office holders, and initiatives.