Sacramento Forecast Project Douglas County, Nevada
Gardnerville Ranchos Micropolitan Statistical Area
Economic Forecast
California State University, Sacramento
 revised January, 2009 
Unemployment Rate | Fountain Predictor | Retail Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page
Douglas County, Nevada (a.k.a. Gardnerville Ranchos Micropolitan Statistical Area) became part of the Sacramento Combined Statistical Area with the release of the 2000 version of geographical boundaries for Statistical Areas defined by The Office of Management and Budget. [for a slide show that explains the boundaries, see MSA Definitions(pps: 180 kb)]. The rationale for the addition of Douglas County in the larger Sacramento CSA is the interaction of persons living and working around Lake Tahoe. The 2000 Census showed better than 4,000 persons living in El Dorado County and working in Douglas County and these two counties surround a large part of the Tahoe Basin.
Number of Persons Employed
graph, Number of Persons Employed, 1990-2009
The Household Survey from the U.S. Department of Labor has shown the number of Persons employed in Douglas County had been growing at a 3.0% rate in 2008 (based on data through November, 2008), up from the 1.5% increase in 2007. The forecast for 2009 is for a much slower 0.2% (40 person) increase.
Unemployment Rate
graph, Unemployment Rate, 1990-2009
The average annual Unemployment Rate for Douglas County in 2008 (based on data through November, 2008) increased to 7.2%, up 2.0 percentage points from the 5.2% average in 2007. The forecast for the annual rate in 2009 is an even higher 8.1%.
Fountain Predictor
The Fountain Predictor for Douglas County turned negative in March, 2006 and has remained in the negative through November, 2008 (the latest actual results). The predictor has declined dramatically in the last half of 2008 as the Labor Force has continued to grow around 5% a month while the number of employed persons has only grown an average of around 2% each month.
graph, Fountain Predictor, 1991-2008
The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area. The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health.
Taxable Sales
Taxable Sales in Douglas County declined to $729.3 million in 2007, a decline of 12.5% from the $830.4 million high point in 2005. The forecast for taxable sales in 2008, using actual data through October, 2008, is for another decline of 9.6% to $659.5 million. The forecast for 2009 is a 0.4% decline to $656.9 million.
graph, Taxable Sales, all Outlets, 1990-2009
Building Permits
The number of Building Permits issued in Douglas County declined from the 590 permits issued in 2006 to 188 permits in 2007 (a 68% decline). The forecast for 2008, using actual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau through November, 2008, is for another major decline in the number of permits issued, down 74% from the previous year to 49 permits issued and another, much smaller decline of 5% to 46 permits in 2009.

National Association of Home Builders has completed an assessment entitled Local Impact of Home Building in Douglas County, Nevada that is worth a read.
graph, Building Permits, 2000-2008
Data Tables
The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Douglas County, in Excel format, that can be made available on request.
table, Civilan Labor Force, 1990-2009
table, Number of Persons Employed, 1990-2009
table, Unemployment Rate, 1990-2009
table, Taxable Sales, Total, 1990-2009
table, Building Permits, Total, 2000-2009
Douglas County has several useful and informative locations on the Internet. For information about the county and its environment, try:
Data Providers:
Back to Sacramento Forecast Project
Update: January, 2009
Next Revision: July, 2009
Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing
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California State University, Sacramento

Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web]