January 16, 2002
New 'CSUS Forecast' predicts
Capital Region will avoid recession
The Capital Region should dodge the big employment declines
now plaguing much of the country, say researchers with California
State University, Sacramento and the California Institute
for County Government.
they predict, the region will enjoy slight employment growth
of about 1 percent during 2002. While that's a far cry from
the strong 4 to 6 percent growth seen at the beginning of
the last two years, it's an enviable position when compared
to most other areas.
The job outlook is contained in the first "CSUS Forecast"
for the region, which was released at a campus news conference
"The national recession won't be felt here nearly as
strongly as it will be felt in other parts of the country
or the state," says Matt Newman, director of the California
Institute for County Government. "Essentially, it looks
like we're going to avoid the worst of the recession in this
Construction employment growth is still positive in the region,
the forecast says, and there is continued growth in new building
permit applications for residential and non-residential development.
The forecast also calls government employment a "stabilizing
influence" on the region's economy. It says government
employment in the region grew at a consistent 5 percent pace
in recent years, though state budget troubles may threaten
that trend. Regional manufacturing employment, which has been
declining since early last year, remains a weak point. It
has been on the negative side since August.
forecast says the Capital Region is well-positioned to benefit
from an expected recovery sometime this year. It predicts
low interest rates and low inflation - coupled with anticipated
recoveries in the Bay Area, the state and the country - will
lead to even stronger job growth here.
The new CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an
econometric model of the six-county Capital Region with more
than two dozen variables. It was developed by the California
Institute for County Government with support from the CSUS
Regional Development Initiative.
CSUS economics professor Suzanne O'Keefe and Robert Fountain,
special assistant for regional development at CSUS, served
as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance
with model development and programming.
Researchers plan to continue providing the forecast every
quarter, and to make more extensive updates to the model each
Additional information is available by contacting Matthew
Newman at (916) 324-0796, sending an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org,
or by visiting the institute's website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting the
CSUS public affairs office at (916) 278-6156.
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