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Capital University News, California State University, Sacramento
October 24, 2003
Forecast: Region faces continued job losses through summer
Job losses in the Sacramento Region are likely to continue through next summer
as ongoing state budget troubles and manufacturing layoffs take their toll,
according to the quarterly CSUS Forecast from the California Institute for County
Government at California State University, Sacramento.
The forecast predicts the negative trend will continue into next year, with
a small improvement in the spring.
Private sector gains, the forecast says, should lift the region into positive
job growth by next August or September.
Recently released Employment Development Department figures show job growth
in the region was down 0.99 percent in September, signaling the region’s
first sustained period of job losses since the early 1990s. The state and nation
as a whole continue to lose jobs as well, but not at the same rate. The EDD
reports state job growth is down 0.33 percent, and the national job decline
is 0.34 percent.
Just last September, Sacramento was dodging the big job losses plaguing the
rest of the state. Job growth in the region at the time was 2 percent.
But researchers with the forecast say government employment is no longer acting
as a cushion for the region, as it traditionally has. More than half of the
jobs lost recently were in government, and that trend will likely continue,
the forecast says.
The quarterly CSUS Forecast of the region's job outlook uses an econometric
model of the six-county Capital Region with more than two dozen variables. It
was developed by the California Institute for County Government with support
from the CSUS Regional Development Initiative. CSUS economics professor Suzanne
O'Keefe and Robert Fountain, special assistant for regional development at CSUS,
served as project advisors. Shawn Blosser of Databasix provided assistance with
model development and programming.
More information is available from Matthew Newman, director of the California
Institute for County Government, at (916) 324-0796, or at the institute’s
website at www.cicg.org.
Additional media assistance is available by contacting CSUS public affairs at
California State University, Sacramento Public Affairs
6000 J Street Sacramento, CA 95819-6026 (916) 278-6156