Sacramento Forecast Project	Economic Forecast for the United States	California State University, Sacramento
	revising January, 2008
Real Growth | Unemployment | Inflation | Resources |    SFP Page

Real Growth
1/31/2008:   The advance results for the 4th quarter of 2007 puts the average annual growth in the economy in 2007 at a 2.2% increase, just below the 2.5% to 3.5% range that I forecasted in January of 2007. I'm expecting 2008 to be a relatively weaker (the annual average since 1929 is 3.5% a year) year, and I'm lowering the range to 2.0%-3.0% for the full year.

Unemployment Rate
1/31/2008:   The Annual Average Unemployment Rate for the U.S. ended 2007 with an annual rate 4.62%; right in the middle of the 4.0% to 5.0% range that I forecasted last January. I raised the range to between 4.5% and 5.5% for 2008. For a historical perspective of the Unemployment Rate, here's a graph of the last fifty-seven years.    Additional Employment indicators:      shift from goods producing jobs to service producing jobs      Fountain Predictor      Monthly Nonfarm Employment.

Inflation
1/31/2008:    The Inflation Rate, as measured by the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) for 2007 ended up at 2.9%, just a fraction below the 3.0% to 4.0% range I forecast in January, 2007. I set the range for the annual rate of inflation in 2008 at between 3.5% and 4.5%. There is just enough uncertainty surrounding credit and prices to push the range up a half a percent.    Check out Inflation: 1915 to Present for a historical perspective of the Consumer Price Index, CPI-U.

Resources

Want another forecast... Checkout the UCLA - Anderson Business Forecast. Check the past forecasts: The complete record is in Table form, or view the graphs of Real Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation. The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains several databases, in Excel format, that can be made available on request.

Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Revised: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web]