Combination of heat and pressure determines what kind of petroleum is produced
Oil
Natural gas
Kerogen (solid petroleum)
Takes millions of years to form
Oil Traps: oil migrates through porous rock to somewhere where it is blocked
by impermeable rock
What is the outlook for more large petroleum strikes?
Hubbert Curve: Oil production peaks right about now, decreases into
the future
US Oil
Alaska (North Slope)
Arctic Wildlife National Refuge (ANWR)
10.4 billion barrels (6 months of U.S. use)
Environmental issues
Gulf Coast
Jack Field - new deep water, deep well strike
Perhaps 15 billion barrels (about the same as North Slope) in deep
Gulf field
American use is about 20 million barrels per day, so Jack Field
is about 2 years worth
California: about 12% of U.S. production
Total US production: about 5 million b/d
World Oil
Global oil demand, 2005: 84 million b/d, (30 billion yearly) and increasing
at 3.5% yearly
Estimated to increase 47% to 120 mb/d by 2030. Half that increase comes
from Asia.
Total estimated world reserve: 1300 billion barrels
Other hydrocarbon resources?
Tar Sands
280-300 bb at today’s technology
2000+ bb total oil
Mined, then processed
Expensive
Requires 1 barrel to produce 3 barrels
Very high CO2 output
Oil Shales
At least 500 bb recoverable
Economic at $70-95 per barrel
Water-intensive recovery
Technology still in development
High CO2 output
Methane hydrates
Occur as gel on ocean floor
Estimated reserve is roughly twice total known reserves of petroleum
No technology yet for recovering
Risk of liberating methane during recovery
Potentially explosive
Massive greenhouse impacts
Summary of Petroleum costs
Economic: currently one of less expensive forms of energy, especially
for transportation
Health: smog, ozone, estimated cost between $100 billion - $1 trillion
per yr.
Environment: oil spills, oil drilling, carbon
Strategic: US lacks oil, imports 75% - not important if we can use oil
shales or tar sands (assuming we’re still Canada’s ally)
Nuclear Power
Fission
Large molecules split, releasing energy and particles
Radioactive waste
Currently in operation in commercial reactors
Fusion
Small molecules stuck together
Waste products are clean
Currently requires more energy to generate reaction than it yields
How does a reactor work?
Naturally occurring uranium is not concentrated enough to keep reaction
running, so uranium must be enriched first
Control rods that absorb neutrons are slide into uranium fuel rods to
stop reaction
Whole assembly is in water to cool system
Another water system is heated by circulating past reactor
Hot water turns turbine, makes electricity
Summary of costs of nuclear
Economic: currently economic viable. BUT coast of electricity generated
by nuclear power does NOT include cost of either permanent disposal of
fuel or of decommissioning of old reactors
Health: risk from accident. Original estimated total deaths from Chernobyl
- about 10,000. But so far these have not appeared - no increased cancer
rates. Deaths of uranium workers. Total risk unknown
Chernobyl: Reactor used graphite as combination control mechanism
and insulation (instead of water)
April 25, 1986
Reactor safety systems were shut down for a test of the turbines
A power surge caused the reactor to overheat, melting the fuel
rods
The reactor exploded and the graphite ignited, sending radioactive
particles high into the atmosphere
25% of Belorus contaminated, also Ukraine and Russia
Environmental: contamination in accident (so far no serious impacts
of Chernobyl), uranium mining, low CO2, waste disposal
Yucca Mountain: inside Nevada Atomic Test Site
Requirements for permanent disposal of high level nuclear waste
(spent fuel rods):
10,000 years of isolation from: Groundwater, Earthquakes, Volcanoes,
Accidents, Terrorists
Reasonable transportation
US DOE originally considered three sites. Two were removed from
list by their Senators. Only Nevada was left
Impermeable volcanic layers, above water table
Spent fuel embedded in glass, put in canisters, stored in tunnels
Issues at Yucca Mountain
More groundwater motion than originally thought
Potentially seismically active
Volcanics younger than originally thought
Transportation issues
Fierce local opposition
Strategic: US has large reserves of uranium, but waste is a terrorist
risk
Limited amounts of U-235. Must develop breeder reactors (use U-238)
or fusion for long run