Syllabus

Philosophy 192U:  Uncertainty

Spring 2009

• Instructor: G. Randolph Mayes
• Campus Phone: 278-7588
• Office: Mendocino 3028
• e-mail: mayesgr@csus.edu
• Office Hours: M,W 12-1:30, F 10-12, or by appointment
• Google Talk:  grandolphmayes

Catalog description

Examines the role of uncertainty in belief formation and rational decision making.  Topics include:  the appeal of certainty, the acceptance of uncertainty, varieties of uncertainty, the nature of risk and risk aversion, Bayes’ Theorem, reasoning and decision errors under conditions of uncertainty, the problem of induction, biases and heuristics for coping with uncertainty.

Prerequisite

Minimum 6 units of philosophy or permission of instructor.

Course description

From a classical perspective, the aim of reason is to eliminate doubt and uncertainty using logic rather than blind faith or simple dogma.  The scientific revolution changed this perspective. Today we understand that scientific inquiry contributes to human knowledge using logical methods that are inherently uncertain.  Uncertainty, then, is not an eliminable defect of scientific rationality, but an essential feature of it.  Reason is no longer understood as a tool for eliminating uncertainty, but for aiding us in its presence.  In this course we will study the nature of human rationality and human irrationality under conditions of uncertainty.  We will learn the extent to which insights into the nature of probability and the role of human values has allowed us to develop effective belief and decision making strategies.  We will also learn the extent to which people resist and struggle to implement these strategies, as well as various evolutionary, economic and ethical theories that attempt to explain these difficulties.

Course goals

Our goal in this course will be to develop a sophisticated  understanding of the nature of uncertainty.   The course presupposes no experience in advanced mathematics or symbolic logic, but we will study basic logical and probabilistic concepts. We will learn how thinking about uncertainty has developed from ancient times, how our current understanding of uncertainty informs our understanding of human rationality, and what it implies about our ability and obligation to think and act rationally.  Specifically, by the end of the course students will be able to:

1.  Explain the appeal of certainty.

2.  Explain why uncertainty can not be eliminated by logical means.

3.  Explain how rational belief formation under conditions of uncertainty is achieved.

4.  Summarize common errors of reasoning under conditions of uncertainty and how they can be avoided.

5.  Identify and define various concepts of risk.

6.  Summarize various rational decision making strategies under conditions of risk.

7.  Employ basic concepts of probability theory.

8.  Correctly apply Bayes’ rule to problems of belief revision.

Course requirements

Written assignments

You will be given the opportunity to complete 6 written assignments, 4 of which will count toward your final grade.  The assignments will require either answering a specific multi-part question or writing a critical analysis of an article we have not read in class.  Samples of properly well constructed responses to multi-part questions are available here. Instructions for writing critical analyses are available here.  Each assignment is worth 20 pts. 

Presentations

You will do one presentation. The presentation will cover some topic from the text in somewhat greater depth using outside sources.  You will choose your presentation topic from a list of topics which will be available by the 2nd week of the semester.  The presentations will be due the the week that we are covering this topic.  You will do the presentation using Google Presentations and share it online with the members of the class. Particularly interesting presentations will be selected to be presented in class. The presentation is worth 10pts.

Online Discussion

This course has an online discussion forum.  The URL for this forum is http://groups.google.com/group/192U.  (You will not be able to participate in this group until you establish a Google gmail account.) Your participation will be evaluated at the midterm (5%) and at the end of the semester (5%).  There is no maximum or minimum number of entries, but you should shoot for at least 5 solid entries for each grading period.  Although this is an informal forum, your serious entries should be constructed with some care.  It is ok to post thoughts, questions, or information that is not particularly relevant to the course, but you will not get any credit for them.  You may also post links to an interesting article, etc., but you will normally not get credit for simply posting the link itself.   Write intelligently and in complete sentences and treat each other respectfully.  Be sure to distribute your entries throughout the semester.  The point is to help each other.  You will not receive any credit for simply dumping content in at the end of the grading periods.

Important: Your first contribution to the discussion forum must be posted by midnight February 2nd.  Click on "New Post."  In the subject heading write:  "Hi everybody, I'm ______."   Then, in the message tell us a few interesting things about yourself.  (Preferably not about school.) Failure to complete this assignment by the deadline will result in 1 pt. beings subtracted from your final grade.

Nammour Symposium

Any student  who would like to participate in the Nammour Student Essay Competition may submit an entry to the competition in lieu of the assignment due at that time.  You must submit your entry both to me and by the Nammour submission procedure.  In addition any student who wins the Nammour Student Essay Competition will be excused from one writing assignment or the class presentation as the student prefers. (Being excused from an assignment means that you are automatically awarded full credit for that assignment.)

Grading Criteria for Individual Assignments

Your written work will be evaluated primarily for the quality of the thought it represents and how well it applies the concepts learned in class. This is an advanced seminar.  All written work is expected to display writing competence.  It is not possible to receive more than 14 points on a written assignment that contains significant  numbers of typos or grammatical errors, even when the quality of thought is reasonably high.  By this point in your education you know the basic expectations of philosophical writing, but you may want to review them here:  Department Writing Guidelines.  When your assignment is to analyze an article you will be required to use the format described here: How to Analyze a Philosophical Essay.

Assignment Submission

As noted above, participation in this class requires a Google gmail account.  If you don't already have one you may do so here. You will submit your assignments using Google Docs unless otherwise directed.  You will also construct and share your presentation using Google Presentations.  Instructions for doing this are located here.

Attendance

Attendance is compulsory. You are allowed a maximum of two absences. For each absence over two your final point total will be reduced by 2 points. Please note that I do not distinguish between excused and unexcused absences. You are late if you come to class after I take roll. If you are late you must tell me on that day or it will be counted as an absence. Two times late is equal to one absence.  Students who accumulate in excess of two absences may earn absence credits by attending academic events sponsored by the Philosophy Department and submitting a short essay about the proceedings. (See me for details.) 

Grading

In calculating your final grade fractional point totals are to the nearest whole point, with point totals ending in .5 being rounded up.  Grades are assigned on a standard scale with minuses (-) added to scores less than 100 ending in 0 and 1 and plusses (+) added to scores less than 98 ending in 8 or 9.  Hence, after rounding: :  A= 92-100,  A- =  90-91,  B+ = 88-89,  B= 82-88,  B- = 80-81, etc..

Important:: You and only you are responsible for monitoring your performance in this course. Be sure to pay close attention to the drop deadline. Do not hesitate to talk to me if you are experiencing problems at any time during this course.

Collaboration and Academic Honesty

You are free to work together on essays outside of class. Be advised, however, that if multiple essays exhibit striking similarities (e.g., identical sentence structure, even in places) they will all be summarily failed. Use each other as a source of ideas, but do your writing by yourself.  All work done in this course is subject to the  CSUS academic honesty policy, which you may read at:  http://www.csus.edu/admbus/umanual/UMA00150.htm.   

Late Assignment Policy

Late assignments are downgraded by 10% for every calendar day  they are late. For example, if an assignment is due March 1st, and it is submitted anytime on March 3rd, then it is 2 days late.  No assignment will be accepted over a week late in the absence of extreme extenuating circumstances. 

Textbooks

• Thinking and Deciding, by Jonathan Baron, 4th Edition. 
• Supplemental materials posted to instructor's website.

Students with Disabilities

Students with disabilities requiring accommodation must provide disability documentation to SSWD, Lassen Hall 1008, (916) 278-9655.  Please discuss your needs during the first week of the semester.