Sacramento Forecast Project Yuba City MSA/CEA Economic Forecast California State University, Sacramento
 revised January, 2009 
Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | back to SFP Page
The annual average number of "Wage and Salary" jobs in the Yuba City Component Economic Area (CEA), a.k.a. Yuba City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) experienced declined -3.23% (-1,517 jobs) in 2008 after five years of steadily increasing numbers. The forecast for 2009, based on actual data through December, 2008, is for a much smaller decline of -0.07%(31 jobs).
graph, Employment, 1995-2009
The annual Unemployment Rate for the MSA/CEA for 2008 was 12.3%, up from 9.7% in 2007. The forecast for the annual Unemployment Rate for 2009, based on actual data through December of 2008, is for a continuation of the increase to 12.9%.
graph, Unemployment Rate, 1995-2009
Fountain Predictor
The Fountain Predictor for the Yuba City MSA/CEA was positive for 42 months (November, 2003 through April, 2007), with two singular exceptions: April, 2006 and January, 2007). Then came May, 2007 and the beginning of the latest negative pattern. The negative pattern has continued through December, with the negatives reaching a low of -4.724 in November, 2008, and a slight improvement in December.
graph, <i>Fountain</i> Predictor
The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area.The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health.
Taxable Sales
Taxable Sales from all Outlets in the Yuba City MSA/CEA increased 2.4% in 2007, stronger than the 0.9% increase in 2006. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through the 4th quarter, 2007, is a small decline of -0.02%; followed by a 0.7% increase in 2009
graph, Taxable Sales, all Outlets, 1995-2009
Building Permits
Residential Building Permits in the Yuba City MSA/CEA region nearly doubled from the 1,581 permits in 2003, to the 2,855 permits in 2004, and remained strong through 2005 with 2,735 permits. Those were the boom-times, followed now by the big drop that came in 2006 with the total number of permits declining to 1,335, a 51.2% decline, another 27.7% decline in 2007. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through November, 2008, is for another big drop - down another 76.6% from 2007 to a total of 226 residential permits for the year. The forecast for 2009 is for a possible bottoming to occur with only a 14.4% drop from the 2008 level.
graph, Building Permits, 1995-2009
Data Tables
The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Yuba City CEA/MSA, in Excel format, that can be made available on request.

table, Employment, 1990-2009
table, Employment, 1990-2009
table, Unemployment Rate, 1990-2009
table, Taxable Sales, all Outlets, 1990-2009
table, Building Permits, 1995-2009
The best way to get additional information on the Yuba City CEA /MSA is from the two counties involved - Sutter and Yuba Counties. For information about the CEA and its environment, try:

Sutter County: Yuba County:
Data Providers:
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Update: January, 2009
Next Revision: July, 2009

Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing
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California State University, Sacramento

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