| Sacramento Forecast Project | Yuba City MSA/CEA Economic Forecast | California State University, Sacramento |
| revised January, 2008 | ||
| Unemployment | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | back to SFP Page | ||
| Employment |
| The Yuba City Component Economic Area (CEA), a.k.a. Yuba City Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) continues to show growth in the average annual number of "Wage and Salary" jobs, but at a slower pace than previous years. The number of jobs in 2007 increased by 0.3% (133 jobs) to an annual average of 45,600 jobs. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December of 2007, is for a slightly higher 167 job (0.7%) increase. |
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| Unemployment |
| The annual Unemployment Rate for the MSA/CEA for 2007 was 9.7%, up from the 8.9% in 2006. The forecast for the annual Unemployment Rate for 2008, based on actual data through December of 2007, is for a continuation of the increase to 10.1%. |
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| Fountain Predictor | |
| The Fountain Predictor for the Yuba City MSA/CEA was positive for 42 months (November, 2003 through April, 2007), with two singular exceptions: April, 2006 and January, 2007). Then came May, 2007 and the beginning of the latest negative pattern. The negative pattern continued through December, with the negatives getting bigger (the December value was -2.858%), as the Labor Force in the MSA outgrew the available employment. | |
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| The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure of the economic health of an area. | The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health. |
| Taxable Sales |
| Taxable Sales from all Outlets in the Yuba City MSA/CEA only increased 0.9% in 2006, much slower than the 11.7% increase in 2005 or the 13.1% increase in 2004. The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through the 4th quarter of 2006, is for a slightly better 1.5% increase and followed by a little stronger 2.0% increase in 2008.. |
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| Building Permits |
| Residential Building Permits in the Yuba City MSA/CEA region nearly doubled from the 1,581 permits in 2003, to the 2,855 permits in 2004, and remained strong through 2005 with 2,735 permits. Those were the boom-times, followed now by the big drop that came in 2006 with the total number of permits declining to 1,335, a 51.2% decline. The forecast for 2007, based on actual data through November, is for a continued slide - down another 25.6% from 2006 to 993 residential permits for the year. The forecast for 2008 is for a slowing of the decline, with only a 7.9% drop from the 2007 level. |
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| Data Tables | |
| The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for Yuba City CEA/MSA, in Excel format, that can be made available on request. |
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| Resources |
| The best way to get additional information on the Yuba City CEA /MSA is from the two counties involved - Sutter and Yuba Counties. For information about the CEA and its environment, try: Sutter County:
Data Providers: |
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Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 URL: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/j/jensena/sfp/sa11/yub2/yuba-cea.htm Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu College of Business Administration California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web] |