| Sacramento Forecast Project | Sacramento Region Economic Forecast | California State University, Sacramento |
| revised January, 2008 | ||
| Unemployment Rate | Fountain Predictor | Taxable Sales | Building Permits | Data Tables | Resources | SFP Page | ||
| The Sacramento Region is the combination of six counties (El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba) or 2 MSA's (Sacramento and Yuba City). It is also the geographic area covered by the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG). I've added the page at the request of the Sacramento Regional Research Institute (SRRI), which is a joint venture of the Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization (SACTO) and California State University, Sacramento (CSUS). |
| Wage and Salary Jobs |
| 1/31/2008: Although the growth has been slow since the turn of the century (4.05% in 2000 was the fastest), the six county Sacramento Region has not had a decline in the number of Wage and Salary jobs since 1992. The most recent annual result was a 1.6% (15.1 thousand job) increase in 2007. The forecast for 2008, based on actual data through December, is for a much slower 0.17% (1.6 thousand job) increase. |
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| Unemployment Rate |
| 1/31/2008: The annual average Unemployment Rate for the Sacramento (6 County) Region in 2007 was 5.6%, up from the 4.9% in 2006. The Sacramento Region's annual Unemployment Rate, based on actual data through December, 2007, is forecast to be up again to 5.9% in 2008. |
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Fountain Predictor |
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| 1/31/2008: The Fountain Predictor turned negative in December, 2006 and stayed in the red, with the exception of a very weak +0.07% in March, 2007, through the most recent December. The general pattern (following the patterns in the constituent MSA's and counties) was an increasing negative difference as 2007 progressed and ending with the December value of -1.63% - the largest of the year and larger than any of the negatives in the previous negative cycle (2002-03) and the largest since 1992. The negative difference is the result of the Labor Force still increasing (December's average was +1.02%) while the Number of Persons Employed declined (December's average was -0.61%). This obviously is not a good situation. | |
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| The Fountain Predictor was named for Robert J. Fountain (Professor Emeritus, California State University, Sacramento) who suggested graphically comparing the twelve month percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed with the twelve month percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force as a measure the economic health of an area. | The theory suggests that as long as the percentage change in the Number of Persons Employed is larger than (above) the percentage change in the Civilian Labor Force, for that area, that area is in good economic health. |
| Taxable Sales |
| 1/31/2008: Taxable Sales for all outlets in the Sacramento Region amounted to over $33.8 billion in 2006, a small increase of 0.95% over the $33.4 billion in sales in 2005. The forecast for 2007, based on reported results through the 4th quarter of 2006, is for an even smaller 0.25% ($0.1 billion) increase. The forecast for 2008 is for a slightly better 3.3% increase. |
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| Building Permits |
| 1/31/2008: Residential construction, as measured by building permits, in the six county Sacramento Region has had some memorable moments of the last 10 years: the 40% surge in 1998, a 15% jump in 2000, a 17% jump in 2002 and a 14% increase in 2003. The 2.6% increase in 2004 was the top with the year ending with permits for more than 25,000 new units. The number of permits declined by 17.9% in 2005, with just shy of 20,900 permits issued; declined again by 36.7%, with only 13,350 permits issued in 2006 and declined another 31.8% in 2007, based on actual data through November, with only 9,101 permits issued. The forecast for 2008, is for a smaller 27.5% decline to 6,598 permits issued for the year. |
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| Data Tables | ||
| The Sacramento Forecast Project maintains files for these variables and the supporting variables for the Sacramento Region, in Excel format, that can be made available on request. | ||
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| Resources | ||
For information on the Sacramento Region.
Data Providers: |
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Back to Sacramento Forecast Project Update: January, 2008 Next Revision: July, 2008 URL: http://www.csus.edu/indiv/j/jensena/sfp/srri/sac-reg.htm Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing e-mail to: jensena@csus.edu College of Business Administration California State University, Sacramento Disclaimer: Professor Arthur N. Jensen takes full responsibility for the information posted. The information on this page represents that of Professor Arthur N. Jensen and not that of California State University, Sacramento. [as required in PM BA 96-13 Policy on CSUSInfo World Wide Web] |