Forecasts by Variable
Employment Variables
Household Survey
[u] Civilian Labor Force
[u] Number Employed
[u] Unemployment Rate
Establishment Survey
[u] Total Number of Jobs
[u] Construction Jobs
[u] Manufacturing Jobs
[u] Government Jobs
Earnings and Hours
[u] Average Weekly Earnings
[u] Average Hours Worked
Taxable Sales
[n] Total Taxable Sales
[n] Total Sales Permits
[n] New Auto Sales
Transportation
[u] Air Passengers
[u] Air Freight
Residential Construction
[u] Building Permits
[n] = not updated
[p] = partial update
[u] = updated
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2/28/2008: All done...the January update is complete and only a month late.
2/22/2008: Done so far are Amador, Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba Counties, along with the Butte-Glenn CEA, the Sacramento(4 county)MSA, the Yolo/Colusa CEA, the Yuba City MSA/CEA, the Sacramento (6 county) Region, California and the U.S.
2/7/2008: BIA just released the January Net New Home Sales numbers and the 2008 forecast was lowered considerably - check it out.
2/5/2008: I'm still working on finishing up the update but, in the meantime I did a forecast for Sacramento Chapter of the Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA) and here's the slideshow I used.
1/31/2008: Done so far are El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba Counties, along with the Sacramento(4 county)MSA, the Yuba City MSA/CEA, the Sacramento (6 county) Region, California and the U.S.
1/8/2008: The January revision has begun with the release of the employment numbers for the US in December.
8/24/2007: The variable presentation (the left margin) is finally organized. Minimal dialogue, just the graphs to tell the story.
8/18/2007: The July employment numbers were released yesterday and, unfortunately they did not contain any improvement in the Foutain Predictor for either California or the Sacramento MSA. The Sacramento MSA predictor even got more negative, relative to the June value.
8/14/2007: The geographic portion (the right margin of this page) of the July revise is complete. I intend to update the Fountain Predictor each month for the rest of the year for California and the Sacramento MSA. I also plan to finally get the variables listed along the left margin organized and presented.
8/3/2007: Murphy's Law is still in force - I upgraded some programs and lost access to the CSUS server - Thanks Microsoft! The July continues with the Sacramento (4 County) MSA being updated, and now that I'm back on line, the rest should follow rather rapidly.
1/19/2007: The January, 2007 update has begun and I'll be posting the forecasts as the data for December becomes available - EDD-LMI will release the December employment numbers today, so most of the updates will occur next week.
7/24/2006: California has been undated and with EDD-LMI's release of June's employment numbers, the rest should follow along quickly.
7/15/2006: The July revise begins with a homepage makeover to give the presentation more of a Blog look. Although I do not intend to be making daily entries, I do intend to update some of the pages more frequently than I have in the past. Plus, this update marked the beginning of the eleventh year of the web site and it seemed appropriate to make some adjustments.
The geographic coverage that the site has provided for the last ten years is still available and each of the areas are accessable from the list on the right side of the page. I will be focusing on getting those pages updated as the data for June and the second quarter of 2006 come in.
The list on the left of this page contains most of the variables that are tracked for the forecasts and I decided to give them their own pages. So, for example, for Civilian Labor Force (the first on the list) the page will provide a comparison of US, California and Sacramento MSA changes as well as other revelant information. I will be creating and updating these pages as a byproduct of the geographic coverage; so until you see an underline under a variable name, the page is not ready yet.
Finally, to track the update progress, I've included flags for each of the pages that will show the status of each forecast. Just a simple coding with [u] meaning the site is updated, [p] meaning the site is partially updated, and [n] meaning I haven't gotten to the site yet.
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Forecasts by Area
United States[u]
California[u]
Sacramento Economic Area[u]
Sacramento Region[u]
Butte-Glenn CEA[u]
Colusa-Yolo CEA[u]
Sacramento CEA[u]
Sutter-Yuba CEA[u]
Combined Metropolitan Areas
Sacramento CSA[u]
Metropolitan Areas
Chico-Paradise MSA[u]
Sacramento MSA[u]
Yuba City MSA[u]
Micropolitan Areas
Truckee-Grass Valley MSA[u]
Gardnerville Ranchos MSA[u]
California Counties
Amador County[u]
Butte County[u]
Colusa County[u]
El Dorado County[u]
Glenn County[u]
Nevada County[u]
Placer County[u]
Sacramento County[u]
Sutter County[u]
Yolo County[u]
Yuba County[u]
Nevada Counties
Douglas County[u]
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